Predicting Point Totals for the 2021 Oilers

Simple premise: How many points will each Edmonton Oilers skater end up with this season?

This isn’t some fancy mathematical model or scientific conclusion. It’s probably not even a realistic expectation. It’s just my gut feeling based on the past production of each player. I’m going to work my way up from lowest to highest scorers.

Also, I am going to assume that each player plays 56 games. I know that three games into the season that’s already impossible, but bear with me. Also also, I’m just going to go through who I believe to be the best 18 skaters Edmonton has. The guys that I think will play on a regular basis. Alright, enough qualifiers. Here we go:

18. Adam Larsson: 2 goals, 9 assists (11 points)

82 Game Pace: 3 goals, 13 Assists (16 points)

Adam Larsson missed a good chunk of last season due to injury, which is why he only managed 6 points. Larsson is an excellent passer in my eyes, but will be relied upon as the team’s best shutdown defenseman. Expect all 11 points to come 5-on-5.

17. Slater Koekkoek: 3 goals, 8 assists (11 points)

82 Game Pace: 4 goals, 12 Assists (16 points)

Koekkoek won’t get anywhere near the amount of ice time Larsson does, but it looks like he could be paired up with Tyson Barrie most of the season on the third pair. Dave Tippett probably wants to shelter Barrie as much as possible from high-leverage defensive situations while also pairing him with a guy like Slater who can cover for him. Both guys move the puck really well, and should have no problem getting it to the big boys.

16. Gaetan Haas: 8 goals, 7 assists (15 points)

82 Game Pace: 12 goals, 10 Assists (22 points)

In 58 games as a rookie, Haas managed five goals and five assists. Now that he’s secured a role on this team as their fourth-line centre, I imagine he will only get more and more comfortable as the season rolls on and he plays more games. He’s got the tools to be a driver on the Oilers’ fourth line, so I expect an increase in his production.

15. Caleb Jones: 7 goals, 9 assists (16 points)

82 Game Pace: 10 goals, 13 assists (23 points)

I’ve really liked what I’ve seen from Caleb Jones in the first couple games of the season. In the first game vs. Vancouver, he had two shot attempts from the slot and another from the low point. He’s not afraid to work low, and I believe that is a fine complement to his defensive game. He should have no problem adding to his nine points in 43 games last year.

14. Zack Kassian: 8 goals, 11 assists (19 points)

82 Game Pace: 12 goals, 16 assists (28 points)

I believe that this is the year we see Zack Kassian decline – from an offensive perspective. It’s not due to age (this is his age-30 season), but rather the options the Oilers have on the wings. In the past, it didn’t matter if Kassian stuggled – he was McDavid’s winger by deafult. Now the Oilers have added Ennis, Kahun, Yamamoto, Puljujarvi and Neal, among others. Kassian will have a short leash and if someone else gets hot, expect them to replace Kassian to play with Connor and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

13. Jesse Puljujarvi: 8 goals, 12 assists (20 points)

82 Game Pace: 12 goals, 18 assists (30 points)

This is easily the hardest Oiler to predict for two reasons: First, we haven’t seen the kid play for two years; second, no player on this roster as as big of a range in terms of where they could slot in. I don’t think anyone would be particularly surprised if Puljujarvi ends the season on McDavid’s wing and as the net-front guy on the top Powerplay unit, but we are not really expecting that from him either. I think a 30-point pace is a fairly conservative estimate for the fourth-highest scorer in Liiga a year ago. We shall see.

12. Josh Archibald: 11 goals, 9 assists (20 points)

82 Game Pace: 16 goals, 13 assists (29 points)

The only reason I have Archibald so high is because Dave Tippett will, at some point this season, play Archibald on the top line with Connor McDavid. He loved the pairing last season, so don’t be shocked when he goes back to it. I’d expect Gaetan Haas numbers, aside from a week where Archie puts up five points in two games. But let’s not forget that Josh Archibald finished 6th on the team in scoring last season despite only playing 62 games.

11. Ethan Bear: 4 goals, 17 assists (21 points)

82 Game Pace: 6 goals, 25 assists (31 points)

Every time I watch Ethan Bear move the puck, I am more and more impressed. Nobody on this team is more calm under pressure. Playing with Darnell Nurse both 5-on-5 and on the Power Play should offer Bear every opportunity to improve on his 21 point campaign last season. He will match his total, only in 15 less games.

10. Darnell Nurse: 5 goals, 20 assists (25 points)

82 Game Pace: 7 goals, 29 assists (36 points)

Darnell Nurse was one point behind Oscar Klefbom for the team’s defenceman scoring lead in 2020, and should find himself in a similar competition this year with Tyson Barrie. Nurse saw a slight dip in production last year, but this is a player whose best asset is his ability to jump in the rush. Expect a bounce back in a big way.

9. Tyler Ennis: 12 goals, 13 assists (25 points)

82 Game Pace: 18 goals, 19 assists (37 points)

This prediction will be wrong if Tyler Ennis spends significant time on the fourth line. Obviously. However the reason the team went out and acquired Tyler Ennis was because he is a skilled player who has the speed to play with Connor McDavid. It’s why they re-signed him this season. Even if Ennis spends most of his time with Jesse Puljujarvi and Kyle Turris (you may have noticed I haven’t mentioned him yet) and only gets a few looks with the big boys, he is too good not to produce.

8. James Neal: 20 goals, 9 assists (29 points)

82 game pace: 29 goals, 13 assists (42 points)

This is a weird one. James Neal is, of course, the player that scored 58 points in 2015-16 with Nashville. He is also the same player that scored only seven goals in 2018-19 with Calgary. All I will say about this prediction is that last season, in 55 games, he managed 19 goals and 12 assists. I expect him to park his rear end in front of the net and stay there while pucks bounce off of him. It worked for Ryan Smyth.

7. Kyle Turris: 9 goals, 21 assists (30 points)

82 Game Pace: 13 goals, 31 assists (44 points)

It didn’t work out in Nashville. I’d argue that his “lack of success” had more to do with his contract than his actual play, but sure. It didn’t work out in Nashville. Kyle Turris has hit 40 points four times in his career, most recently in 2017-18. Yes, I’m expecting a very dramatic comeback. But the third line of Ennis/Archibald – Turris – Puljujarvi isn’t getting enough love, even from Oilers fans. They will be getting some favourable matchups and once they get rolling, they will be very fun to watch.

6. Dominik Kahun: 15 goals, 21 assists (36 points)

82 Game Pace: 22 goals, 31 assists (53 points)

I think that Dominik Kahun has finally found a home. The Oilers are his fourth team in his 3-year NHL career despite being quite productive for a man his age. The Oilers only signed him to a one-year deal, but he will be a Restricted Free Agent at its conclusion, so they will be free to lock him up long-term. We all know about the chemistry he should have with his childhood friend, Leon Draisaitl. Kahun could very well be the missing link that forms the best second line in the game. Personally, I think this estimate might be on the safe side.

5. Tyson Barrie: 12 goals, 38 assists (50 points)

82 Game Pace: 18 goals, 56 assists (74 points)

OK, now we are getting to the big boys. This is easily my most outlandish projection. I don’t think Barrie will get this high, but it is absolutely possible. This is a guy who was considered one of the league’s elite offensive defensemen until he got to Toronto. It was a bad fit. Edmonton is a dream scenario for Tyson Barrie. He gets to run the point on the best Power Play in the league with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl while not being expected to be a top pair shutdown guy. This is one of the best puck movers in the game, and he will definitely improve on last season’s numbers. Consider this: Barrie’s best season from a production standpoint was 2017-18: 57 points in 68 games. Over a full season? 69. While unlikely, the 50 point plateau is definitely doable for Barrie.

4. Kailer Yamamoto: 20 goals, 36 assists (56 points)

82 Game Pace: 29 goals, 53 assists (82 points)

Not much to say here that hasn’t been said. Kailer has been a point-per-game player since he was called up last season, and revealed himself as the perfect winger to play with last year’s Hart Trophy winner. What I will say is that even if Yamamoto scores zero points (impossible, he already has three), he is still a very valuable member of this team, thanks to his relentlessness on the forecheck.

3. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins: 19 goals, 45 assists (64 points)

82 Game Pace: 28 goals, 66 assists (94 points)

On the YEG Sports Podcast Season Preview show, I said that one of Nugent-Hopkins or Yamamoto would finish in the Top Ten in league scoring. I don’t doubt Kailer’s ability to do it, but Nuge is the safe bet here. Ryan (27) is the first of the Oilers core to be entering his prime years, and a full season on McDavid’s wing should be enough to propel the product of Burnaby, B.C. to superstardom. His production has improved in each of the last four seasons and I don’t expect it to stop any time soon.

2. Leon Draisaitl: 34 goals, 51 assists (85 points)

82 Game Pace: 50 goals, 75 assists (125 points)

Hard to believe that a 125-point pace is a decrease, but it is a drop of about two points. I expect Leon to follow a similar pattern to his first breakout year – 2016-17. The next season, his goal-scoring remained the same while the assists took a slight dip. Leon is 100% capable of repeating his success last year, but that was downright historic. I think that 85 in 56 is a much more reasonable and down-to-earth prediction.

1. Connor McDavid: 37 goals, 58 assists (95 points)

82 Game Pace: 54 goals, 85 assists (139 points)

Only in Edmonton can a 125-point pace land you second on the team’s leaderboard. Let’s start with the obvious: Connor McDavid is the best player the world has seen since Ovechkin/Crosby, he’s still three years away from his prime, and he’s playing in a league where scoring is increasing. Not to mention that he had an offseason to train and improve rather than rehab an injury. Plus he centres the best Power Play in the League. And now he’s reading articles saying he’s not the best player in the world (see: Michael Jordan). If you are a fan of a Canadian team not named the Edmonton Oilers, cover your butt.

I think that Connor McDavid would be the first to tell you how disappointed he was in his 97-point campaign a year ago. And he will be back with a vengeance.

For the record, 139 points would be the 25th highest single season mark in history, edging out Wayne Gretzky’s first NHL season by two points.

NELSON: Maybe its Just Me?

PHOTO: Calgary Flames (nhl.com/flames)

GUEST AUTHOR: Nels Nelson

Ok first things first. I’m a fan of sports! I get angry (irrationally or rationally) when my teams don’t do well or get shafted by professional officiating. I yell with joy when my teams do well!(even if it wakes my wife and kids) I’m a huge fan of stats, when I understand them, and a huge fan of observation too. In this article I’m going to try and incorporate both stats and observation to put forth a point and ask you the reader if you see it to or maybe it’s just me?

What is irking me at present is the whole Jacob Markstrom signing in Calgary and my fellow Oiler fans and pundits worrying over our current goaltending duo here in Oil Country. I get the concern over Smith, he’s going to turn 39 in a couple of months, his save percentage is in the range of Grant Fuhr’s in the 80s, and his reaction ability isn’t going to get better with age. As for the big Finn Mikko Koskinen, well his glove hand is suspect (actually he improved last season and will this season) he doesn’t have a lot of NHL experience (basically two years) and his save percentage isn’t as good as Markstrom’s. All concerns and comments I hear from people all over the capital region but I’m ok with Ken Holland betting on these two in net for the Oilers this shortened season. I mean they were the goalies of record on the highest place team in the NHL last year. Edmonton had 83 points to Toronto’s 81 points as the second best Canadian team. Edmonton’s win percentage .542 was significantly better than Toronto in second at .521. Wait you say? That’s only 2 points in the standings and .021 points better that’s not very much. (More on not very much in percentage later) Also the Oilers had that horrible December! That’s right that December was atrocious in a variety of spots but even with that the Oilers topped the Canadian teams. As for that minuscule points percentage people are pointing to, well let’s dive into percentages between the Flames new starter and who we are all pretty sure will be the starter for the Oilers Mikko Koskinen.

Jacob Markstrom posted a save percentage of .918 and Mikko Koskinen posted a .917. That’s about as close as you can get to being even in my opinion. Let’s look at it this way, if you were going to go on a trip in your vehicle and needed gas, you whip your car into your favourite gas station and pay .918 per litre and as you’re pumping the gas you see across the street it’s .917 per litre, you’d live with that and continue on your trip not worrying about the thousandth of a cent per litre you could’ve saved right? I know I’d be travelling worrying about other things. Or if you took a penny which is 1/100th of a cent and cut it into 10 equal pieces and gave me that penny minus one piece and said here’s a penny for your thoughts, I’d just look at you and say “you can’t afford that last 1/1000th of a dollar for my wisdom?” That’s the difference of the hairs people are splitting in the Ken Holland missed out on the goalie market debate! I’ll take Koskinen over Markstrom for the cheaper contract and less term. I think every fan of the Oilers should sleep well on the eve of training camp knowing we have the better end of the starting goalie debate. WAIT Nels what about Goals against average? Really? Well they both posted 2.75 GAA last season. But the playoffs, the Canucks did better then the Oil? Yes well you’re right there except I think the Canucks liked Demko better and that’s why Markstrom went to Calgary. A brief aside, I think Vancouver may not do as well this year as everyone predicts. (Remember the excitement over the Oilers little run in 2017 this sounds the same as it did back then) Ken Holland took a swing at Markstrom and when it didn’t work he grabbed Smith and moved on to a very successful signing period for the Oilers. Proof that when one door closes five or six others open.

So to all the readers reading this article I ask you now, are the Oilers not better off without Markstrom? Or maybe it’s just me?

Nels Nelson is an occasional guest on YEG Sports. He also is a playwright, podcaster, referee of hockey and Rugby, fan of a lot of sports, a proud husband and proud father. He also works tirelessly cleaning up the streets of YEG.

Breaking Down the 2021 Edmonton Oilers Schedule

EDMONTON, AB – FEBRUARY 06: Edmonton Oilers Center Connor McDavid (97) celebrates his goal with line mates Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Darnell Nurse (25) and Edmonton Oilers Defenceman Ethan Bear (74) in the first period during the Edmonton Oilers game versus the San Jose Sharks on February 06, 2020, at Rogers Place in Edmonton, AB.(Photo by Curtis Comeau/Icon Sportswire)

Let’s do that hockey.

The Edmonton Oilers will kick off their 41st National Hockey League season on January 13th with a back-to-back against the division rival Vancouver Canucks. What follows is 56 total games in 115 days (approximately one game every other day) against Edmonton’s other division rivals, both traditional and otherwise.

With the closure of the Canada-United States border due to the ongoing COVID-19 Pandemic, the NHL decided to re-align their four divisions so that as many teams as possible were able to play out of their home rinks. The Oilers will partake in the brand new North Division, where they will see the usual suspects – your Canucks and your Flames – but will also see plenty more of the other Canadian teams.

The Opponents

Buckle up, ladies and gentlemen, because the re-ignited (pun intended) Battle of Alberta between your beloved Oilers and the evil savages to the South will occur TEN TIMES this season. 18% of Oilers games in 2021 will be against Calgary. The highlight of this series is a pair of games on back-to-back nights in February with the latter scheduled for Saturday Hockey Night in Canada. Expect blood.

The Vancouver Canucks are the other team the Oilers will square off with ten times, starting with the back-to-back curtain raiser on January 13th and 14th in Edmonton. While Vancouver-Edmonton pales in comparison to the Battle of Alberta, the Canucks are still a rival, and these are two teams that will be right in the thick of the playoff race. Besides, any time you play a team ten times in less than six months, it will get heated. Expect blood.

As for the other four Canadian clubs, the Oilers will play each on a total of nine occasions each. Again, I don’t care what team you’re playing, if you play them this many times in a season, it will get out of hand quickly. Expect blood.

The Format

I really like the decision made by the NHL to construct the schedule the way they did. To explain what I mean by this, let’s take a look at the Oilers’ schedule in the month of March:

To start the month, the Oilers play the last two of a three game series against the Toronto Maple Leafs at home. Then Calgary makes the three hour drive north for a single game, followed by three against the Ottawa Senators. After two weeks at home, the Oilers take the short trip to Vancouver to play a single game. Then two in Calgary. Back home for two against the Winnipeg Jets. Then they travel east of Lloydminster for the first time in over a month. Three in Montreal, two in Toronto, and then it’s back home for the Oilers.

In a month, the Oilers play seventeen games, but they only get on a plane five times, and three of those trips can be completed in an hour and a half or less.

That’s the first reason I really like this schedule from the NHL. In the COVID Era, you want to limit travel as much as possible because it eases the strain on the players, and it reduces the risk of a potential outbreak. If a player in an Edmonton-Montreal game tests positive, it won’t affect the Ottawa-Winnipeg game because you’ve isolated the incident. We are less likely to see MLB-esque cancellations of games because of this schedule.

The second reason I really like the schedule is related to the first section of this article. It builds hate. Sure, the Oilers might not have any hard feelings towards the Canadiens now, but you can’t tell me that playing Corey Perry three times in a week doesn’t end with a spear job. Expect blood.

How Does it Affect the Oilers’ Chances?

I’m not going to get into the “Which Division is the Best” argument here, because I don’t want to waste your time. I just want to look at how the Oilers might fare playing Pacific Division teams vs. their new division opponents. (I’m using Regulation Win Percentage to measure the quality of each team. The reason boils down to the fact that overtime is essentially random.)

Regulation Win %, 2019-20

PacificRW%NorthRW%
ANA.282CGY.357
ARI.371MTL.268
CGY.357OTT.254
LAK.300TOR.400
SJS.314VAN.391
VAN.391WPG.423
VGK.423
TOTAL.348TOTAL.348
Statistics from NHL.com

There you go. The overall quality of teams that the Oilers are facing are exactly the same that they would face in the Pacific Division (obviously this is a very crude measure. It doesn’t take into account offseason additions or internal development). If these numbers seem low, the league high RW% last season was the Boston Bruins at .543.

You may be wondering what the Oilers sat at. By this metric, the Oilers were the best team in the Pacific last year, and the best of the Canadian teams. Their regulation win percentage was .437.

If they’re the best team, then should strength of opponent matter? Perhaps not. Still, I want to compare how well the Oilers play against these teams head-to-head over the last three seasons (for a larger sample size):

Edmonton Oilers Head-to-Head Regulation Win%, 2017-2020

PacificRW%NorthRW%
ANA.300CGY.385*
ARI.250MTL.833*
CGY.385*OTT.400*
LAK.583*TOR.167
SJS.167VAN.333
VAN.333WPG.111
VGK.364*
TOTAL.341TOTAL.353
Statistics from hockey-reference.com and Stathead

Asterisks indicate teams that the Oilers have played well against (RW% above .336, which is Edmonton’s RW% against all teams during that span).

Despite struggling against Toronto and Winnipeg, the Oilers are roughly as successful against the Canadian teams as they are against the Pacific teams. The difference is .984 regulation wins over an 82 game season (.672 over 56). This is to say that the Oilers were a good team last year, should be a better team this year, and that the schedule isn’t offering much to change that. In fact, you could say that the Oilers were granted a very slight advantage from the schedule.

Facts & Figures

While diving deep into the Oilers schedule, a few interesting tidbits presented themselves:

  1. The Oilers are scheduled to play 11 back-to-backs, tied with Ottawa for the most in the North Division, and second in the NHL only to San Jose (According to Travis Yost of TSN). They played eight in 2019-20.
  2. 12 Oilers games are scheduled on Saturdays, compared to 17 that were scheduled over 82 games last season. We won’t know how many will be part of Hockey Night in Canada until the game times are released, but one can only assume that a lot of games in the North Division will be nationally televised.
  3. With divisional playoffs in effect this season, we could see a maximum of SEVENTEEN Battles of Alberta if the two should meet in the first or second round.

The NHL has set the stage for what should be the most entertaining regular season of NHL hockey we have ever witnessed.

Ranking Every Jersey in Oilers History

This is not the first Oilers uniform ranking you have ever read, and it will certainly not be the last.

But with the Oilers teasing the design for their new “reverse retro” set, what better time than for a self-proclaimed jersey nerd to chip in with his humble opinion.

I’m going to count down, in order, all twelve designs that the Oilers have employed, starting with the duds and working down to the classics. If one design had nine variations, I’m only counting it once, choosing what I consider to be the best rendition. Oh, and no WHA jerseys.

Feel free to scream at me through your screen.

(Note: big thanks to Chris Creamer’s sportslogos.net for providing the images. By far the best sports uniform database on the internet.)

12. Reebok Edge Home

Pyjamas. They look like pyjamas.

By far the worst of the worst – and not just because the team sucked. The bright minds behind this monstrosity not only ditched the classic design elements that remained constant throughout the franchise’s history, but it appears they ran out of time when designing this thing. WHAT KIND OF JERSEY HAS STRIPING THAT DOESNT GO AROUND THE WHOLE SLEEVE?!

11. Reebok Edge Away

Same issues as its sister uniform, I just think the striping looks slightly better on a white background.

10. Adizero Home

The final of what I consider to be bad jerseys, but one simple fix would elevate it to one of the best Oilers uniforms. I really like the concept of combining the late ’90s/early 2000s navy blue with the classic orange. The problem is that they used the wrong shade of orange. This is much too light and not at all what was featured on the shoulders of Gretzky and Messier. Picture this sweater but with the orange we saw on the “Orange Crush” jerseys in the 2017 Playoffs. I’ll take six, please.

9. Smyth Era Away

Now we’re getting to the good stuff. The blue and orange had served Edmonton well, but with the turn of the century (as well as a period of transition for the team) looming the Oilers’ look needed an update. Copper and navy were here to stay. If there was one thing that I’d say the Oilers need to bring back, it’s the rigger shoulder patch. It’s less of a logo and more of a testament to the blue collar mindset of people in Northern Alberta. So let’s get on that, please.

If there is one flaw of this design, is that there’s too much white. I like when my away jerseys have some kind of colour happening on the shoulders…

8. One-Season Wonder Away

…like this. Exact same jersey, more colour. Shame it only lasted the one season.

7. Smyth Era Home

These two jerseys scream nostalgia for me. When I first started watching hockey and following the Oilers, they were dressed in these uniforms. But they’re nice to look at, too. They keep the triple stripes from the team’s original uniforms but play with the colours to make the jersey appear more modern and, in my opinion, more oil-themed. While the original sweaters are pretty, I feel that the colours on these sets are a better fit for a team named the “Oilers.”

6. Adizero Friday Night Alternate

This is how you design a third jersey. Slightly adjust the colours and play around with the design. Make small tweaks until you have what seems to be a brand new jersey, while still seeming familiar. While the team’s new colours don’t really work on the primary home jersey, the combination is drastically improved just by flipping them. Plus, this jersey looks much better on the ice in hockey rink lighting then in any image on the internet.

5. Todd McFarlane Alternate

Controversial, I know. But this sweater has a few things going for it. First, trying something totally new in sports fashion usually explodes in a firey ball of crap, so kudos to Mr. McFarlane for designing something that objectively, on its own, doesnt completely suck. Second, the symbolism in this jersey is AWESOME. The logo is an oil drop (on the nose), but also a gear (more subtle representation of the oil & gas industry), and it has five bolts, one for each Stanley Cup the club has brought home.

Really the reason I love this jersey so much is because it was the first I owned, and I wore that thing everywhere.

4. Original Away

All I’ll say is that there is a reason the Oilers brought this design back from the dead. Not only did they win five Stanley Cups in these beauties, but the orange and blue sweaters were considered a classic set in the National Hockey League, up there with the Blackhawks, Canadiens and Kings. They were a part of hockey history.

3. Orange Crush Alternate

When a team breaks a decade-long playoff drought, fans are going to have fond memories. For me, this jersey is symbolic of a new chapter for the team. Breaking away not only from the Decade of Darkness, but even separating themselves from the dynasty years. For the first time since the eighties, the Oilers had two superstars in the same lineup, and they were in totally different jerseys. Jerseys that look impeccable, I might add.

The Oilers would have been fine if they stuck with this shade of orange, but instead they ruined a good thing and we’re stuck with the yellowish-orange disasters we have now.

2. Adizero Away

I don’t have a sentimental reason for putting this jersey ahead of the original whites, I just think the navy blue pops (in a good way). There’s so little orange that the shade really doesn’t affect the look of the sweater.

1. Original Home

Do you think I’m an idiot? Of course this jersey finishes first. When you think of Gretzky, Messier, Kuuri, Coffey, Fuhr, McDavid, Draisaitl and Nugent-Hopkins, nine times out of ten you picture them in this jersey. The colours and striping are just so Oilers. This jersey is the franchise.

Since you stuck around this long, here’s a little tidbit of trivia as a reward. Due to Wayne Gretzky’s famous jersey tuck, the manufacturer’s logo on NHL jerseys was moved in 1981 from the back right corner to the back left corner so that it could be seen on the league’s brightest star. The tags were later moved back, but 99’s sweaters featured tags on both corners.

I know that you, dear reader, probably think I’m out of my mind for ranking the uniforms as I did, so let me know: what is your all-time favourite and least favourite Oilers sweater?